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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via O'Hare, leaving 11:38, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:38 → ORD 17:31AA 2285 2h 01m Chicago ORD 19:32 → BWI 22:42AA 4663 · flown by Republic 8h 04m 93% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 8h 56m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 20m Chicago ORD 14:29 → BWI 17:33UA 2737 7h 48m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 46m Houston IAH 16:53 → BWI 21:11UA 592 10h 26m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 53m Denver DEN 14:02 → BWI 19:34UA 363 7h 49m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 15m 90% 82%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 18:26 → BWI 19:55AA 2855 9h 39m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774 1h 16m Seattle SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781 9h 09m 91% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON