tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2177 American Flight history → SNA 07:16 CLT 15:15 11% 5% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 9h 36m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 43m 94% 87%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 36m Chicago ORD 16:44 → CLT 19:42AA 3188 8h 57m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:35AA 2013 9h 49m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:38 → ORD 17:31AA 2285 3h 23m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 9h 21m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 09:52 → CLT 17:03AA 665 7h 17m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:08 → DFW 14:02AA 1686 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703 9h 36m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 3h 57m Newark EWR 19:18 → CLT 21:27UA 1168 11h 42m 100% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON