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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 51m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:11UA 1941 8h 26m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:01 → IAH 17:36UA 2044 2h 14m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 58m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 43m Houston IAH 16:50 → DCA 21:05UA 235 10h 20m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 8h 52m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:53 → DCA 18:53AA 2520 9h 07m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:38 → ORD 17:31AA 2285 3h 24m Chicago ORD 20:55 → DCA 23:59AA 1187 9h 21m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 3h 37m Chicago ORD 17:45 → DCA 20:54AA 514 10h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 37m 94% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON