Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1425 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1425 SNA 06:45 → DEN 10:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3759 SNA 15:18 → DEN 18:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1425 Southwest	SNA 06:45	DEN 10:21	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4361 Southwest	SNA 06:45	DEN 10:06	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4508 Southwest	SNA 08:20	DEN 11:39	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 323 United	SNA 06:57	DEN 10:18	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	10%	3%	0.6%	99%
WN 4135 Southwest	SNA 09:46	DEN 12:57	12%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 1416 Southwest	SNA 11:05	DEN 14:24	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:10	DEN 19:47	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 680 United	SNA 13:01	DEN 16:21	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4570 Southwest	SNA 13:25	DEN 16:36	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3759 Southwest	SNA 15:18	DEN 18:30	17%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON