Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1933 SNA 15:09 → DFW 20:03 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	5%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 3170 American	SNA 08:10	DFW 13:09	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:08	DFW 14:02	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:43	DFW 15:37	15%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:58	DFW 22:01	18%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 1939 American	SNA 12:14	DFW 17:08	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:39	DFW 19:33	22%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 1933 American	SNA 15:09	DFW 20:03	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON