Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1328 Delta	SNA 12:27	DTW 19:47	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185	2h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	7h 59m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	10h 28m	99%	88%
American Details →	SNA 11:38 → ORD 17:31AA 2285	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 21:08 → DTW 23:22AA 4012 · flown by Envoy	8h 44m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Las Vegas	LAS 15:11 → DTW 22:17DL 778	8h 32m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	9h 00m	98%	85%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 15:33 → DTW 17:56UA 2632	8h 11m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	9h 44m	95%	84%
United Details →	SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 20:25 → DTW 22:44UA 768	9h 07m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON