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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 6% 2% 0.8% 90%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 6% 2% 0.8% 91%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 21% 9% 0.8% 64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 32m Denver DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505 7h 50m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 1h 04m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 43m 83% 71%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:08 → DFW 14:02AA 1686 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:59 → EWR 19:41AA 2861 7h 33m 86% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON