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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 45m Denver DEN 13:54 → FLL 20:03UA 1384 8h 18m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 9h 37m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 8h 55m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:01 → IAH 17:37UA 2044 2h 02m Houston IAH 19:39 → FLL 23:26UA 1956 8h 25m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 24m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:43 → DFW 15:37AA 2114 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:05 → FLL 23:07AA 1847 9h 24m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 2h 15m Newark EWR 17:36 → FLL 20:38UA 8165 10h 53m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 52m Chicago ORD 17:00 → FLL 20:58AA 2881 10h 13m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON