tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 688 United SNA 08:15 IAD 16:16 5% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 21:28 → IAD 05:48 +1UA 705 10h 36m 100% 92%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 46m Chicago ORD 14:55 → IAD 17:52UA 587 8h 07m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 18m Denver DEN 16:01 → IAD 21:36UA 347 8h 16m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 10h 09m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 31m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 9h 26m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 46m Houston IAH 14:53 → IAD 19:16UA 1178 8h 31m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:01 → IAH 17:37UA 2044 2h 45m Houston IAH 20:22 → IAD 00:43 +1UA 1968 9h 42m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 1h 41m Chicago ORD 22:07 → IAD 01:11 +1UA 1922 8h 01m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 75% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON