Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 700 SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2044 SNA 12:01 → IAH 17:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:01	IAH 17:36	14%	5%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON