tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 06:46, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 556 Delta Flight history → SNA 21:00 JFK 05:27 7% 3% 1.2% 89%
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 11:42 JFK 20:38 14% 5% 0.9% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 2h 18m Las Vegas LAS 23:35 → JFK 07:22 +1DL 1159 8h 23m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671 8h 35m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632 9h 31m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 38m Phoenix PHX 09:54 → JFK 17:59AA 2339 8h 13m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:43 → DFW 15:37AA 2114 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:10 → JFK 00:01 +1AA 1248 10h 18m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:09 → JFK 17:43AA 1058 7h 57m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657 9h 50m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 23m Portland PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18 9h 23m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON