Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 136 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–11%.

Safest bet that day WN 136 SNA 06:51 → LAS 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4073 SNA 14:11 → LAS 15:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 136 Southwest	SNA 06:51	LAS 08:03	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4899 Southwest	SNA 08:42	LAS 09:51	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	6%	4%	0.7%	83%
WN 4576 Southwest	SNA 17:52	LAS 19:02	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 15:49	LAS 17:10	8%	5%	0.7%	87%
OO 167 SkyWest	SNA 12:17	LAS 13:44	10%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1639 Southwest	SNA 16:12	LAS 17:20	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3762 Southwest	SNA 11:21	LAS 12:29	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4073 Southwest	SNA 14:11	LAS 15:21	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON