tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 42m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 8h 18m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 3h 52m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 10h 10m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 51m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 10h 09m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:43 → DFW 15:37AA 2114 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:07 → LGA 23:56AA 1375 10h 13m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 09m 86% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 58m Houston IAH 17:05 → LGA 21:46UA 2495 11h 01m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 43m Chicago ORD 15:52 → LGA 19:07UA 511 9h 22m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON