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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 57m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 54m 97% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774 2h 39m Seattle SEA 22:59 → MCO 07:07 +1AS 1371 10h 35m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 23m Chicago ORD 20:16 → MCO 00:03 +1UA 617 10h 26m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 1h 34m Newark EWR 16:55 → MCO 19:56UA 1900 10h 11m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 22m Chicago ORD 15:31 → MCO 19:15UA 1929 9h 30m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 8h 43m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 50m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → MCO 17:34AA 603 7h 48m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329 47m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162 6h 58m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON