Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	MSP 13:39	9%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	3h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	8h 17m	98%	88%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 42m Portland	PDX 11:06 → MSP 16:28AS 714	7h 28m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	10h 30m	99%	86%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 33m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	6h 01m	97%	85%
United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	1h 59m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	6h 26m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	10h 24m	94%	84%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	7h 28m	99%	82%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	1h 12m Phoenix	PHX 09:28 → MSP 14:43AA 408	5h 57m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON