Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2639 SNA 07:25 → OAK 08:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3767 SNA 15:08 → OAK 16:37 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2639 Southwest	SNA 07:25	OAK 08:50	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2767 Southwest	SNA 09:07	OAK 10:31	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2895 Southwest	SNA 17:06	OAK 18:35	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 353 Southwest	SNA 11:11	OAK 12:40	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1692 Southwest	SNA 19:10	OAK 20:38	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3767 Southwest	SNA 15:08	OAK 16:37	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON