Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2912 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2912 SNA 09:25 → PHX 10:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2454 SNA 12:59 → PHX 14:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2912 Southwest	SNA 09:25	PHX 10:46	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1765 Southwest	SNA 17:05	PHX 18:25	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	PHX 08:16	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 565 Southwest	SNA 18:20	PHX 19:38	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1194 Southwest	SNA 10:59	PHX 12:17	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2360 American	SNA 10:03	PHX 11:34	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:07	PHX 14:37	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3774 Southwest	SNA 12:59	PHX 14:17	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:15	PHX 17:47	16%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:59	PHX 14:26	20%	6%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON