Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 3251 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–13%.

Safest bet that day AS 3251 SNA 06:45 → SFO 08:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3054 SNA 09:15 → SFO 10:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 06:45	SFO 08:30	6%	3%	1.3%	93%
OO 3313 SkyWest	SNA 16:47	SFO 18:25	12%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 653 United	SNA 07:16	SFO 08:52	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3499 SkyWest	SNA 19:59	SFO 21:35	12%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:07	SFO 19:41	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	13%	6%	1.3%	67%
AS 3248 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 18:03	SFO 19:33	13%	5%	1.8%	65%
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	13%	5%	2.1%	50%
UA 1320 United	SNA 14:56	SFO 16:31	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3333 SkyWest	SNA 14:06	SFO 15:50	16%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3441 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 12:01	SFO 13:42	16%	6%	0.8%	76%
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:43	SFO 11:24	19%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:15	SFO 10:49	20%	6%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON