Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3780 SNA 06:45 → SJC 08:24 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2896 SNA 15:07 → SJC 16:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3780 Southwest	SNA 06:45	SJC 08:24	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2645 Southwest	SNA 08:55	SJC 10:19	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3786 Southwest	SNA 20:26	SJC 21:56	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 377 Southwest	SNA 19:40	SJC 21:10	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1681 Southwest	SNA 11:22	SJC 12:48	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2896 Southwest	SNA 15:07	SJC 16:32	8%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON