Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1185 SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1671 SNA 13:30 → SLC 16:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 07:15	SLC 10:13	7%	4%	0.7%	91%
DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SNA 09:50	SLC 12:46	8%	5%	0.7%	92%
OO 3730 SkyWest	SNA 18:53	SLC 21:51	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SNA 17:03	SLC 19:58	10%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 1671 Delta	SNA 13:30	SLC 16:29	10%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON