Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2509 SNA 08:16 → SMF 09:47 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2761 SNA 12:22 → SMF 13:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2509 Southwest	SNA 08:16	SMF 09:47	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2416 Southwest	SNA 20:08	SMF 21:43	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 563 Southwest	SNA 10:38	SMF 12:18	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2768 Southwest	SNA 17:19	SMF 18:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 12:22	SMF 13:59	10%	3%	0.6%	96%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON