Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1499 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1499 SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3115 SRQ 17:35 → ATL 19:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1499 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	ATL 07:39	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 1445 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 07:04	ATL 08:45	5%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 11:01	ATL 12:41	7%	5%	1.3%	92%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 12:50	ATL 14:32	11%	4%	1.3%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 17:35	ATL 19:18	16%	8%	1.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON