Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 12:18, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2584 American Flight history →	SRQ 12:18	DCA 15:03	25%	5%	1.9%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 27m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → DCA 12:58DL 1961	5h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	7h 36m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:35 → ATL 19:18DL 3115	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 17m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → DCA 19:48DL 832	6h 58m	98%	81%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 40m Newark	EWR 10:33 → DCA 11:52UA 4172 · flown by GoJet	5h 52m	97%	80%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Miami	MIA 10:01 → DCA 12:46AA 1612	6h 24m	96%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 10:47 → CLT 12:41AA 2264	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	5h 26m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON