Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:17 am at Sarasota/Bradenton)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4072 at 17:26, 30%.

Nonstops today


MQ 4072 Envoy	SRQ 17:26	DFW 19:12	30%	9%	4.3%	no record
AA 2679 American Flight history →	SRQ 16:51	DFW 18:51	30%	11%	3.6%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 44m	100%	89%
American Details →	SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19AA 5566 · flown by PSA	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → DFW 15:10AA 1690	8h 41m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → DFW 16:53DL 374	7h 21m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	7h 39m	99%	82%
American Details →	SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:43AA 2264	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	7h 09m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:54 → ATL 15:35DL 3104	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:43 → DFW 18:56DL 1827	6h 02m	97%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 07:06 → MIA 08:20AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Miami	MIA 09:23 → DFW 11:35AA 1824	5h 29m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:29 → LGA 16:13DL 2412	3h 16m New York	LGA 19:29 → DFW 22:05DL 352	9h 36m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON