Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: UA 1343 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day


UA 1343 United Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	EWR 08:53	3%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2612 United Flight history →	SRQ 12:15	EWR 15:08	20%	6%	2.1%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 12m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340	7h 21m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:54 → ATL 15:35DL 3104	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 00m	99%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19AA 5566 · flown by PSA	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 10:57 → EWR 12:55AA 1697	5h 26m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:52DL 2527	6h 18m	97%	77%
American Details →	SRQ 13:24 → CLT 15:11AA 1452	3h 44m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → EWR 20:46AA 2415	7h 22m	100%	66%
American Details →	SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:43AA 2264	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 16:33 → EWR 18:23AA 1330	7h 34m	97%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON