tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:35 am at Sarasota/Bradenton)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:32, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:47 → IAH 16:00DL 1874 6h 28m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612 2h 46m Newark EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782 9h 40m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 7h 23m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:54 → ATL 15:35DL 3104 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 18:49 → IAH 20:04DL 1284 7h 10m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:29 → LGA 16:13DL 2412 2h 16m New York LGA 18:29 → IAH 21:44DL 2109 9h 15m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:43AA 2264 51m Charlotte CLT 13:34 → IAH 15:14AA 2088 5h 25m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 13:24 → CLT 15:11AA 1452 2h 22m Charlotte CLT 17:33 → IAH 19:22AA 2935 6h 58m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 16:51 → DFW 18:51AA 2679 2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:36 → IAH 22:50AA 2209 6h 59m 95% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON