Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2412 at 13:29, 23%.

Nonstops that day


DL 2412 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 13:29	LGA 16:13	23%	7%	2.1%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	7h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467	7h 42m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 18m	98%	84%
American Details →	SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19AA 5566 · flown by PSA	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:46 → LGA 13:49AA 2796	6h 20m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 21:29 → LGA 23:36DL 520	6h 02m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:54 → ATL 15:35DL 3104	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 19:28 → LGA 21:35DL 468	7h 41m	99%	77%
American Details →	SRQ 07:06 → MIA 08:20AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Miami	MIA 10:15 → LGA 13:13AA 2424	6h 07m	96%	76%
American Details →	SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:43AA 2264	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 15:46 → LGA 17:51AA 1942	7h 02m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON