Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:52 am at Sarasota/Bradenton)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1773 at 15:08, 20%.

Nonstops today


WN 1773 Southwest	SRQ 15:08	MDW 17:01	20%	8%	1.8%	no record
WN 360 Southwest	SRQ 18:03	MDW 20:04	28%	9%	2.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 43m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 41m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON