Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 06:22, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SRQ 06:22	MIA 07:24	9%	3%	1.4%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	7h 02m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:35 → ATL 19:18DL 3115	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 20m	99%	82%
American Details →	SRQ 07:30 → CLT 09:24AA 5566 · flown by PSA	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 41m	92%	78%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	2h 38m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	8h 38m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 54m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:47 → MIA 19:43DL 1328	6h 53m	99%	72%
American Details →	SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:44AA 2264	50m Charlotte	CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198	4h 52m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	2h 25m New York	LGA 19:55 → MIA 23:22DL 2382	8h 52m	95%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON