tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:52 am at Sarasota/Bradenton)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1065 at 12:01, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1065 American SRQ 12:01 PHL 14:55 18% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:41 → PHL 14:44DL 2956 7h 40m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 10:32 → ATL 12:19DL 3196 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 32m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 17:34 → ATL 19:16DL 3115 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 7h 25m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:54 → ATL 15:35DL 3104 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:24 → PHL 20:27DL 2065 6h 33m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:19AA 5566 · flown by PSA 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 7h 21m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 07:06 → MIA 08:18AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 57m Miami MIA 11:15 → PHL 14:18AA 1918 7h 12m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 10:49 → CLT 12:42AA 2264 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 15:05 → PHL 16:51AA 864 6h 02m 97% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON