Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3682 at 06:15, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3682 Southwest	SRQ 06:15	STL 07:53	6%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:42 → STL 13:32DL 1102	7h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:46 → STL 16:35DL 543	6h 34m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 17:35 → ATL 19:18DL 3115	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	7h 18m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 03m	98%	84%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	48m Newark	EWR 09:41 → STL 11:19UA 2311	6h 19m	94%	82%
American Details →	SRQ 07:29 → CLT 09:18AA 5566 · flown by PSA	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 12:04 → STL 12:51AA 3096	6h 22m	100%	81%
American Details →	SRQ 13:22 → CLT 15:09AA 1452	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 18:59 → STL 20:03AA 2686	7h 41m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON