Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2158 Southwest	STL 08:21	AUS 10:23	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3803 Southwest	STL 21:16	AUS 23:20	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062	6h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 25m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 46m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	6h 26m	99%	88%
United Details →	STL 06:11 → IAH 08:37UA 1371	3h 28m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	7h 01m	100%	88%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 08:23 → AUS 10:53AA 1121	5h 57m	99%	87%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:43 → AUS 10:59AA 3054	5h 27m	99%	87%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	3h 14m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	7h 52m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON