Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: MQ 3546 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–14%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3546 STL 09:05 → BOS 13:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2144 STL 13:36 → BOS 17:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3546 Envoy	STL 09:05	BOS 13:05	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1538 Southwest	STL 10:47	BOS 14:30	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	STL 20:34	BOS 00:17	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 982 Southwest	STL 19:16	BOS 23:04	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 2144 Southwest	STL 13:36	BOS 17:17	17%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON