Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1515 STL 06:50 → CLT 09:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3096 STL 13:35 → CLT 16:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1515 American Flight history →	STL 06:50	CLT 09:51	6%	4%	0.6%	94%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	6%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	STL 11:44	CLT 14:32	7%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	STL 13:35	CLT 16:29	8%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON