Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3940 at 18:34, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3940 Southwest	STL 18:34	CMH 21:00	8%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	STL 18:09 → DTW 20:44DL 2822	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic	4h 47m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 10:14 → CMH 13:05DL 2550	5h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:23 → CMH 16:03DL 2892	5h 39m	99%	92%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 07:34 → CMH 10:01AA 3414 · flown by Envoy	4h 05m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	4h 48m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	5h 30m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 16:08 → DTW 18:44DL 1371	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	3h 54m	95%	90%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492	3h 54m	61%	50%
United Details →	STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet	51m Chicago	ORD 17:51 → CMH 20:15UA 1278	3h 53m	47%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON