Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4583 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 4583 STL 06:49 → DAL 08:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4586 STL 16:33 → DAL 18:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4583 Southwest	STL 06:49	DAL 08:30	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4584 Southwest	STL 08:34	DAL 10:23	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4823 Southwest	STL 13:10	DAL 14:50	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1535 Southwest	STL 14:44	DAL 16:26	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3821 Southwest	STL 20:38	DAL 22:18	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4586 Southwest	STL 16:33	DAL 18:16	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON