Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1930 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1930 STL 08:20 → DCA 11:27 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2286 STL 17:01 → DCA 20:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1930 Southwest	STL 08:20	DCA 11:27	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 4634 Republic	STL 06:00	DCA 09:33	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	STL 11:59	DCA 15:23	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2999 Southwest	STL 13:32	DCA 16:42	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1965 Southwest	STL 15:19	DCA 18:23	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1493 Southwest	STL 19:01	DCA 22:04	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2286 American Flight history →	STL 17:01	DCA 20:14	13%	6%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON