Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 3827 at 08:34 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 3827 STL 08:34 → DEN 09:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 STL 16:34 → DEN 18:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3827 Southwest	STL 08:34	DEN 09:55	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3826 Southwest	STL 06:56	DEN 08:13	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 5548 SkyWest	STL 05:10	DEN 06:53	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 125 Southwest	STL 12:10	DEN 13:22	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2459 United Flight history →	STL 09:06	DEN 10:30	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 3832 Southwest	STL 20:39	DEN 21:57	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1380 United Flight history →	STL 13:38	DEN 15:00	9%	4%	0.5%	86%
WN 985 Southwest	STL 15:58	DEN 17:15	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3831 Southwest	STL 18:32	DEN 19:50	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2323 United	STL 16:34	DEN 18:01	14%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON