Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2261 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 2261 STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1363 STL 15:21 → DFW 17:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2261 American Flight history →	STL 05:32	DFW 07:30	3%	3%	0.6%	92%
MQ 3739 Envoy	STL 22:46	DFW 00:40	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 537 American Flight history →	STL 07:07	DFW 09:06	6%	4%	0.7%	83%
MQ 4074 Envoy	STL 12:44	DFW 14:40	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3333 American	STL 10:01	DFW 11:48	8%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1959 American Flight history →	STL 08:12	DFW 10:05	9%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	STL 15:21	DFW 17:12	16%	6%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON