Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1626 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 1626 STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1145 STL 19:09 → DTW 21:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1626 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:30	DTW 09:04	4%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:19	DTW 12:53	4%	2%	0.5%	92%
WN 3833 Southwest	STL 10:54	DTW 13:28	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	STL 16:08	DTW 18:44	7%	3%	0.5%	77%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:09	DTW 20:44	7%	3%	0.5%	76%
WN 1145 Southwest	STL 19:09	DTW 21:41	14%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON