Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 577 STL 07:29 → EWR 11:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3710 STL 16:50 → EWR 20:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 577 United	STL 07:29	EWR 11:00	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3715 Republic	STL 09:31	EWR 12:54	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 560 United	STL 12:19	EWR 15:56	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
YX 3710 Republic	STL 16:50	EWR 20:47	13%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON