tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4981 at 10:11, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4981 Southwest STL 10:11 FLL 13:51 5% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 27m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:30 → FLL 15:34DL 1294 8h 04m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:11 → IAH 08:37UA 1371 1h 41m Houston IAH 10:18 → FLL 14:09UA 2670 6h 58m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 54m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 6h 04m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → FLL 13:20DL 2063 5h 12m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:14 → IAH 08:31UA 6283 · flown by Mesa 3h 21m Houston IAH 11:52 → FLL 15:28UA 1982 8h 14m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → FLL 15:41DL 1413 5h 17m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:08 → DTW 18:44DL 1371 2h 00m Detroit DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296 6h 34m 97% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 46m Chicago ORD 17:46 → FLL 21:45UA 463 5h 23m 39% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON