Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1371 STL 06:08 → IAH 08:21 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 6213 STL 11:05 → IAH 13:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1371 United Flight history →	STL 06:08	IAH 08:21	8%	3%	0.2%	83%
UA 652 United	STL 15:07	IAH 17:28	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
G7 4595 GoJet	STL 08:32	IAH 10:42	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 6213 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	STL 11:05	IAH 13:24	15%	6%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON