Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 187 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 187 STL 05:39 → LGA 09:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 579 STL 16:22 → LGA 19:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 187 Southwest	STL 05:39	LGA 09:06	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1085 Southwest	STL 05:45	LGA 09:14	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4450 Republic	STL 06:09	LGA 09:48	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4443 Republic	STL 09:55	LGA 13:36	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4981 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 07:08	LGA 10:35	14%	2%	0.7%	90%
9E 5041 Endeavor	STL 09:43	LGA 13:16	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5020 Endeavor	STL 13:02	LGA 16:30	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2151 Southwest	STL 19:39	LGA 23:07	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 553 Southwest	STL 11:05	LGA 14:34	19%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:14	LGA 19:53	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
9E 5110 Endeavor	STL 10:00	LGA 13:29	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4334 Southwest	STL 11:20	LGA 14:49	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 12:47	LGA 16:21	19%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 17:19	LGA 20:53	23%	5%	0.7%	64%
WN 3779 Southwest	STL 15:35	LGA 19:04	27%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 579 Southwest	STL 16:22	LGA 19:44	28%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON