Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4622 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4622 STL 05:26 → MCO 08:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2839 STL 15:43 → MCO 18:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest	STL 05:26	MCO 08:46	2%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3857 Southwest	STL 06:24	MCO 09:49	3%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3737 Southwest	STL 07:05	MCO 10:26	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4091 Southwest	STL 10:19	MCO 13:40	8%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3858 Southwest	STL 10:17	MCO 13:33	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 1007 Southwest	STL 16:33	MCO 19:47	19%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 3703 Southwest	STL 19:02	MCO 22:17	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 2839 Southwest	STL 15:43	MCO 18:56	22%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON