Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1716 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1716 STL 05:18 → MIA 09:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest MQ 3851 STL 17:01 → MIA 20:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1716 American Flight history →	STL 05:18	MIA 09:15	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
WN 4591 Southwest	STL 11:26	MIA 15:06	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3851 Envoy	STL 17:01	MIA 20:40	25%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON