tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3870 Southwest STL 08:24 MSY 10:18 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1192 Southwest STL 08:31 MSY 10:23 6% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 5h 37m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:07 → IAH 08:16UA 1371 3h 39m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 7h 07m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695 6h 36m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 09m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 33m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 43m Denver DEN 13:13 → MSY 16:57UA 250 7h 51m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224 6h 51m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 04:54 → ORD 06:24AA 1926 2h 09m Chicago ORD 08:33 → MSY 10:51AA 4040 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 99% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON