Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via National, leaving 10:57, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STL 10:57 → DCA 14:15AA 4645 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Washington	DCA 17:06 → MYR 18:51AA 5266 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	6h 00m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 16:40 → ATL 19:25DL 543	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	4h 45m	99%	83%
American Details →	STL 10:12 → CLT 13:06AA 3096	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 15:57 → MYR 17:09AA 2943	5h 57m	100%	81%
American Details →	STL 11:44 → CLT 14:32AA 2497	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 17:48 → MYR 18:52AA 1417	6h 08m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON