Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1926 at 04:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1926 STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 541 STL 17:28 → ORD 18:52 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1926 American Flight history →	STL 04:56	ORD 06:26	4%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 1997 American Flight history →	STL 07:24	ORD 09:01	6%	6%	0.6%	88%
AA 2818 American	STL 10:54	ORD 12:18	7%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2792 United	STL 07:43	ORD 09:06	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4734 SkyWest	STL 11:28	ORD 12:54	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
YX 4645 Republic	STL 17:48	ORD 19:28	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1920 United	STL 13:28	ORD 14:53	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STL 13:41	ORD 15:06	16%	9%	0.7%	59%
OO 5332 SkyWest	STL 15:05	ORD 16:35	16%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 541 United	STL 17:28	ORD 18:52	23%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 4517 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 10:20	ORD 11:52	10%	1%	1.4%	90%
UA 4183 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 08:00	ORD 09:35	28%	8%	0.5%	72%
UA 4395 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 11:25	ORD 13:03	29%	12%	2.8%	71%
UA 4165 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 19:05	ORD 20:39	30%	12%	5.7%	70%
UA 4452 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	STL 15:22	ORD 17:00	37%	17%	5.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON