Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AS 1318 at 18:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 1318 Alaska	STL 18:15	PDX 20:04	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 19m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 58m	99%	92%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	2h 57m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 07m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 05m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 10m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:55DL 691	10h 33m	99%	89%
American Details →	STL 04:56 → ORD 06:26AA 1926	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 08:13 → PDX 10:51AA 1713	7h 55m	99%	88%
United Details →	STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa	3h 22m Houston	IAH 16:47 → PDX 19:18UA 1964	10h 08m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON